Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Audax Italiano win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Audax Italiano win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Audax Italiano would win this match.