Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 38.48%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.75%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (11.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.