Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 83.42%. A draw had a probability of 11.8% and a win for Manaus had a probability of 4.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.14%) and 1-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.54%), while for a Manaus win it was 0-1 (2.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.