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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 0-1 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Norwich City |
39.8% ( -0.02) | 25.81% | 34.39% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 54.63% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.44% ( 0) | 49.56% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.41% ( 0) | 71.59% ( -0.01) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.45% ( -0.01) | 24.55% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.97% ( -0.01) | 59.03% ( 0.01) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.4% ( 0.01) | 27.6% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.87% ( 0.02) | 63.13% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Norwich City |
1-0 @ 9.52% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.6% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.68% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.03% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.59% 4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 1.82% Total : 39.8% | 1-1 @ 12.25% 0-0 @ 6.78% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 8.72% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.61% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.38% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.41% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 34.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
4 | Burnley | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 38 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 20 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
8 | Watford | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 31 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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