Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 11, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Leopold Sedar Senghor

Senegal
4 - 0
Malawi

Gueye (35'), Mane (68'), Dia (71'), Jackson (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Njaliwa (53'), Banda (90+4')
Munthali (16')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Senegal and Malawi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Senegal

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Burundi 0-1 Senegal
Monday, September 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Malawi

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Burkina Faso 3-1 Malawi
Tuesday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 72.95%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 8.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.43%) and 3-0 (10.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.3%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.

Result
Senegal	Draw	Malawi
72.95% ( -0.75)	18.82% ( 0.22)	8.22% ( 0.53)

Both teams to score 33.9% (

1.52)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.33% (

0.73)

54.67% (

-0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24% (

0.6)

75.99% (

-0.61)

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.33% (

-0)

13.66% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.14% (

-0)

40.86% (

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

39.26% (

1.76)

60.74% (

-1.76)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

8.98% (

0.85)

91.02% (

-0.85)

Score Analysis

Senegal 72.93%

Malawi 8.22%

Draw 18.82%

Senegal	Draw	Malawi
1-0 @ 16.51% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 16.43% ( -0.48) 3-0 @ 10.9% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.73% Total : 72.93%	0-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.24) 1-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.24% Total : 18.82%	0-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.09) Other @ 1% Total : 8.22%