Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 5, 2024 at 2pm UK

Bingu National Stadium

Malawi
2 - 3
Burundi

Kawonga (31'), Nkhoma (75')
Saizi (83')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Idana (22' og.), Claude Girumugisha (33'), Elie Eldhino (87')
Madjaliwa Mussa (21'), Nsabiyumva (90+4'), Ndayishimiye (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Burundi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

Last Game: Eq Guinea 1-0 Malawi
Monday, June 10 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Burundi

All competitions

Last Game: Seychelles 1-3 Burundi
Tuesday, June 11 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Burundi win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Burundi
41.13% ( -0.32)	26.56% ( -0.01)	32.32% ( 0.32)

Both teams to score 51.68% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.89% (

0.12)

53.11% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.31% (

0.1)

74.69% (

-0.1)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.55% (

-0.11)

25.46% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.72% (

-0.15)

60.28% (

0.15)

Burundi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.32% (

0.28)

30.68% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.07% (

0.33)

66.93% (

-0.33)

Score Analysis

Malawi 41.12%

Burundi 32.32%

Draw 26.55%

Malawi	Draw	Burundi
1-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.41% Total : 41.12%	1-1 @ 12.62% 0-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.55%	0-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.09% Total : 32.32%