Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 64.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Gabon had a probability of 12.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.3%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a Gabon win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.