Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 73.82%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Al Riyadh had a probability of 10.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.49%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for an Al Riyadh win it was 0-1 (3.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.

Result
Al-Nassr	Draw	Al Riyadh
73.82% ( -1.76)	16% ( 0.84)	10.19% ( 0.92)

Both teams to score 50.62% (

0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.52% (

-1.16)

36.48% (

1.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.38% (

-1.27)

58.62% (

1.27)

Al-Nassr Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.52% (

-0.66)

8.47% (

0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.61% (

-1.65)

29.39% (

1.65)

Al Riyadh Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.3% (

1.04)

44.69% (

-1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.31% (

0.83)

80.69% (

-0.83)

Score Analysis

Al-Nassr 73.81%

Al Riyadh 10.19%

Draw 16%

Al-Nassr	Draw	Al Riyadh
2-0 @ 11.53% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.38) 1-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 5.86% ( -0.43) 4-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.06) 5-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.31) 5-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.18) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.17) 6-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.11) 5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.66% Total : 73.81%	1-1 @ 7.53% ( 0.4) 0-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.19) Other @ 0.94% Total : 16%	0-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.87% Total : 10.19%