Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Istiqlol Dushanbe win was 2-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.

Result
Istiqlol Dushanbe	Draw	Al-Nassr
26.43% ( -0.49)	22.77% ( -0.03)	50.8% ( 0.52)

Both teams to score 60.64% (

-0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.29% (

-0.28)

39.71% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.94% (

-0.29)

62.06% (

0.29)

Istiqlol Dushanbe Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.03% (

-0.5)

27.97% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.39% (

-0.64)

63.61% (

0.64)

Al-Nassr Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.2% (

0.08)

15.8% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.04% (

0.14)

44.96% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Istiqlol Dushanbe 26.43%

Al-Nassr 50.81%

Draw 22.76%

Istiqlol Dushanbe	Draw	Al-Nassr
2-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 5.63% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.66% Total : 26.43%	1-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.76%	1-2 @ 9.58% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 7.52% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 5.9% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 4.63% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 2.13% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.68% Total : 50.81%