AFC Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 24, 2023 at 5pm UK
Azadi Stadium

Persepolis
2 - 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe

Sadeghi (44', 71')
Rafiei (45'), Gvelesiani (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Novoselec (57')
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Persepolis and Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Form, Standings, Stats

Persepolis

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Last Game: Al-Duhail 0-1 Persepolis
Monday, October 2 at 7pm in AFC Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Istiqlol Dushanbe

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Last Game: Al-Nassr 3-1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
Monday, October 2 at 7pm in AFC Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Persepolis win with a probability of 44.26%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 27.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Persepolis win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win it was 0-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Persepolis would win this match.

Result
PersepolisDrawIstiqlol Dushanbe
44.26% (0.040000000000006 0.04)28.02% (0.013999999999999 0.01)27.71% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
Both teams to score 45.3% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.79% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)60.21% (0.077000000000005 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.6% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)80.39% (0.055999999999997 0.06)
Persepolis Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.91% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)27.08% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.54% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)62.46% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Istiqlol Dushanbe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.13% (-0.090000000000003 -0.09)37.87% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.35% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)74.64% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Persepolis 44.26%
    Istiqlol Dushanbe 27.71%
    Draw 28%
PersepolisDrawIstiqlol Dushanbe
1-0 @ 13.39% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 8.75% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.5% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 3.81% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.7% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 1.8% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.24% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.21% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 44.26%
1-1 @ 13%
0-0 @ 10.25% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 28%
0-1 @ 9.96% (0.004999999999999 0)
1-2 @ 6.32% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.84% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.04% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.57% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.34% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 27.71%

Head to Head
Sep 14, 2021 4pm
Round of 16
Istiqlol Dushanbe
0-1
Persepolis

Safarov (80')
Torabi (90')
Faraji (19'), Sarlak (79')