| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 | Belenenses | 34 | -32 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 56.81%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.6%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Braga.
| Result | ||
| Belenenses | Draw | Braga |
| 18.5% | 24.7% | 56.81% |
| Both teams to score 44.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.81% | 56.19% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.76% | 77.25% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.34% | 44.66% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.34% | 80.66% |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.29% | 19.72% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.28% | 51.73% |
| Score Analysis |
| Belenenses | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 7.1% 2-1 @ 4.65% 2-0 @ 2.86% 3-1 @ 1.25% 3-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.63% Total : 18.5% | 1-1 @ 11.52% 0-0 @ 8.81% 2-2 @ 3.77% Other @ 0.6% Total : 24.69% | 0-1 @ 14.29% 0-2 @ 11.6% 1-2 @ 9.36% 0-3 @ 6.28% 1-3 @ 5.07% 0-4 @ 2.55% 1-4 @ 2.06% 2-3 @ 2.04% Other @ 3.55% Total : 56.8% |