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May 19, 2022 at 8pm UK at Villa Park
Aston Villa
1 - 1
Burnley
Buendia (48')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Barnes (45' pen.)
Long (55')
Lowton (90+1')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Burnley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Man City 3-2 Aston Villa
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League
Last Game: Burnley 1-2 Newcastle
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League

We said: Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley

Villa have not beaten Burnley at Villa Park since October 2010, but the home side have shown excellent form under Gerrard, and we are expecting a Villa victory on Saturday afternoon, albeit by a close scoreline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 49.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 24.75%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
Aston VillaDrawBurnley
49.62% (0.018999999999998 0.02) 25.63% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 24.75% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 49.71% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.63% (0.019000000000005 0.02)53.37% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.09% (0.016999999999999 0.02)74.91% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.47% (0.01700000000001 0.02)21.53% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.4% (0.024000000000001 0.02)54.6% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.35%36.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.56% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)73.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 49.61%
    Burnley 24.75%
    Draw 25.62%
Aston VillaDrawBurnley
1-0 @ 12.11%
2-1 @ 9.34% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 9.3% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-1 @ 4.78% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.76% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-2 @ 2.4% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 1.84% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.83% (0.002 0)
4-2 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 49.61%
1-1 @ 12.16%
0-0 @ 7.89% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-2 @ 4.69% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 25.62%
0-1 @ 7.92% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-2 @ 6.11% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 3.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.04% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.57% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.33% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 24.75%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Burnley

Aston Villa
71.6%
Draw
18.1%
Burnley
10.3%
465
Head to Head
May 7, 2022 3pm
Burnley
1-3
Aston Villa
Cornet (90+1')
Brownhill (69')
Ings (7'), Buendia (31'), Watkins (52')
Digne (21'), Watkins (45+1')
Jan 27, 2021 6pm
Burnley
3-2
Aston Villa
Mee (52'), McNeil (76'), Wood (79')
Tarkowski (22')
Watkins (14'), Grealish (68')
Dec 17, 2020 6pm

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