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May 22, 2022 at 4pm UK at Turf Moor
Burnley
1 - 2
Newcastle
Cornet (69')
Tarkowski (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Wilson (20' pen., 60')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Burnley 1-2 Newcastle
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League

We said: Burnley 1-0 Newcastle United

At any other stage of the season it might be difficult to back a Burnley win here, but the result is so much more important to the hosts than it is to Newcastle, and that could make the difference in a game of fine margins. Burnley are also in good form at home, whereas Newcastle's away form has been poor of late, so we are backing the home side to pick up the win they need to stay in the Premier League for another season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
BurnleyDrawNewcastle United
43.47% (-0.105 -0.1) 25.55% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 30.98% (0.081 0.08)
Both teams to score 54.36% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.6% (-0.073 -0.07)49.4% (0.074000000000005 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.56% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)71.44% (0.067999999999998 0.07)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.35% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)22.65% (0.081999999999997 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.72% (-0.12 -0.12)56.28% (0.122 0.12)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.28% (0.019000000000005 0.02)29.72% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.22% (0.021999999999998 0.02)65.78% (-0.02000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 43.47%
    Newcastle United 30.98%
    Draw 25.54%
BurnleyDrawNewcastle United
1-0 @ 10% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.01% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.42% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 4.46% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.67% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.66% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.36% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 43.47%
1-1 @ 12.12% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.73% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.46% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.09% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.54%
0-1 @ 8.17% (0.028 0.03)
1-2 @ 7.36% (0.012 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.96% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.98% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.21% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 0.9% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 30.98%

How you voted: Burnley vs Newcastle

Burnley
46.1%
Draw
21.2%
Newcastle United
32.6%
193
Head to Head
Dec 4, 2021 3pm
Aug 25, 2021 7.45pm
Newcastle
0-0
Burnley
Burnley win 4-3 on penalties

Collins (79'), McNeil (80')
Apr 11, 2021 12pm
Oct 3, 2020 8pm
Newcastle
3-1
Burnley
Saint-Maximin (14'), Wilson (65', 77' pen.)
Joelinton (37'), Lewis (49')
Westwood (61')
Tarkowski (37'), Barnes (40'), McNeil (69')

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