Major League Soccer

May 11, 2025 at 12.30am UK

TQL Stadium

Cincinnati
2 - 1
Austin

Evander (12', 12'), Valenzuela (76', 76')
Denkey (35'), Denkey (35')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Vazquez (48' pen., 48' pen.)
Sabovic (69'), Sabovic (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's MLS clash between FC Cincinnati and Austin FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 1-0 Cincinnati
Sunday, May 4 at 8pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Austin FC

All competitions

Last Game: Austin 0-3 Minnesota Utd
Sunday, May 4 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 60.37%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 17.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for FC Cincinnati in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for FC Cincinnati.

Result
FC Cincinnati	Draw	Austin FC
60.37% ( 0.03)	21.86% ( -0.01)	17.77% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 51.44% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.88% (

0.02)

46.12% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.58% (

0.02)

68.42% (

-0.02)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.16% (

0.02)

14.83% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.86% (

0.04)

43.14% (

-0.04)

Austin FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.4% (

-0.01)

39.59% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.72% (

-0.01)

76.28% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

FC Cincinnati 60.36%

Austin FC 17.77%

Draw 21.85%

FC Cincinnati	Draw	Austin FC
1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.69% 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.3% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.25% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.01% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 2.51% Total : 60.36%	1-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.9% Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.85%	0-1 @ 5.44% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.52% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 2.09% Total : 17.77%