Austin FC will begin their second season in the MLS with a home fixture against FC Cincinnati, with both sides looking for better campaigns after a rather underwhelming 2021 season.
In their debut campaign, Austin could only muster a 12th-placed finish in the Western Conference, while the Orange and Blue finished bottom of the pile in the Eastern Conference.
Match preview
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No longer the new boys, Austin will be looking for an improvement in their second MLS season as they aim to make a push for the playoffs this time around.
Josh Wolf would have tried to use the off-season to solve the problems that plagued Austin at both ends of the pitch last term.
No side scored fewer goals in the regular season than Austin in 2021, while they were also poor defensively, as they ended the last season with the joint-worst defensive record in the Western Conference after conceding 34 goals in 56 matches.
With the new season upon us, Saturday's hosts will at the very least be aiming to finish closer to the playoffs than they did in 2021, when they ended the season 17 points adrift of the top seven.
If they are to enjoy a better campaign this time around, they need to make full use of the raucous atmosphere at the Q2 stadium.
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Cincinnati head into their fourth MLS season fully focused on reaching the playoffs for the very first time.
After finishing in 12th place in their inaugural season, Cincinnati have ended their last two campaigns at the bottom of the pile in the Eastern Conference.
Saturday's visitors endured a torrid campaign in 2021 after collecting just 20 points, while they only picked up four victories in their 34 regular season matches.
Having spent the last three seasons at Philadelphia Union as an assistant coach, Pat Noonan has taken up the reigns as Cincinnati head coach.
Although he takes over a team that have failed to deliver in the MLS up to this point, the 41-year-old will know that the only way is up for the Orange and Blue as the new boss looks to make his name in the dugout.
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Team News
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The hosts are without the services of Rodney Redes and Danny Hoesen due to injury issues.
One of Austin's notable signings in the off season was Jhojan Valencia, who will play a key role in the centre of midfield in 2022.
Maximiliano Urruti has joined Austin from fellow Texas side Houston Dynamo, and Wolf will be looking to the 31-year-old to provide the goals this season.
Meanwhile, the visitors have a clean bill of health ahead of opening night, as they look to start the season on a positive note.
Alec Kann joined Cincinnati in the off season and after spending a large period of his career as a backup goalkeeper, the 31-year-old is expected to feature regularly for the Orange and Blue this season.
Brenner and Luciano Acosta scored 15 goals between them last season and the pair are expected to be crucial for Cincinnati in the coming campaign.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Cascante, Gabrielsen, Kolmanic; Valencia, Ring; Finlay, Pereira, Driussi; Urruti
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Kann; Powell, Hagglund, Vallecilla, Blackett; Cameron, Mendunjanin, Acosta; Vazquez, Kubo, Brenner
We say: Austin FC 2-1 FC Cincinnati
The two sides did not meet last season so Saturday's contest will be the first encounter between Austin and Cincinnati, and with home advantage in their favour on opening night, we think that Austin will edge out the Orange and Blue to start the campaign on a positive note.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 57.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
