Ligue 2 | Gameweek 34
May 10, 2025 at 4pm UK
Stade Armand-Cesari
Caen

Bastia
2 - 1
Caen

Guidi (24'), Ariss (72')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Najim (28')
Lebreton (3'), Le Bihan (47')
Coverage of the Ligue 2 clash between Bastia and Caen.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bastia

All competitions
Last Game: Guingamp 2-2 Bastia
Friday, May 2 at 7pm in Ligue 2

Caen

All competitions
Last Game: Caen 1-1 Red Star
Friday, May 2 at 7pm in Ligue 2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 60.63%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Caen had a probability of 17.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a Caen win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bastia would win this match.

Result
BastiaDrawCaen
60.63% (-0.873 -0.87)21.44% (0.182 0.18)17.92% (0.692 0.69)
Both teams to score 53.08% (0.785 0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.9% (0.356 0.36)44.09% (-0.357 -0.36)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.52% (0.34800000000001 0.35)66.47% (-0.34699999999999 -0.35)
Bastia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.91% (-0.152 -0.15)14.09% (0.152 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.3% (-0.3 -0.3)41.69% (0.3 0.3)
Caen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.78% (1.021 1.02)38.22% (-1.02 -1.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.02% (0.969 0.97)74.98% (-0.968 -0.97)
Score Analysis
    Bastia 60.63%
    Caen 17.92%
    Draw 21.44%
BastiaDrawCaen
1-0 @ 10.55% (-0.22 -0.22)
2-0 @ 10.34% (-0.27 -0.27)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.012 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.76% (-0.22 -0.22)
3-1 @ 6.5% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-0 @ 3.31% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 3.18% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.13% (0.073 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.53% (0.027 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.3% (-0.057 -0.06)
5-1 @ 1.25% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 60.63%
1-1 @ 10.14% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 5.38% (-0.084 -0.08)
2-2 @ 4.78% (0.137 0.14)
3-3 @ 1% (0.05 0.05)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 21.44%
0-1 @ 5.18% (0.063 0.06)
1-2 @ 4.88% (0.166 0.17)
0-2 @ 2.49% (0.098 0.1)
1-3 @ 1.57% (0.095 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.53% (0.085 0.09)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 17.92%

Head to Head
Nov 2, 2024 1pm
Gameweek 12
Caen
2-0
Bastia
Mendy (31'), Brahimi (57')
Gaucho Debohi (69')

Ariss (45')
Jan 23, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 21
Bastia
1-2
Caen
Santelli (33' pen.)
Charbonnier (81')
Charbonnier (84')
Mbock (60'), Mendy (83' pen.)
Mbock (23'), Thomas (55'), Gaucho Debohi (62'), Le Bihan (90+1')
Dec 2, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 16
Caen
1-0
Bastia
Mendy (88')
Gaucho Debohi (77'), Brahimi (89')

Keita (33'), Janneh (67'), Djoco (74'), Tavares (90+3')
Feb 3, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 22
Caen
3-1
Bastia
Saletros (50'), Mendy (69' pen., 82')
Bai (88')
Dec 26, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 16
Bastia
1-0
Caen
Bai (90+1')