Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 59.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Grenoble had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.81%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a Grenoble win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.