Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 59.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 17.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.