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Ligue 2 | Gameweek 27
Mar 15, 2025 at 7pm UK
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Lorient
4 - 0
Bastia

Ebong Avon (8'), Junior Kroupi (42' pen.), Katseris (70'), Yongwa (88')
Katseris (38'), Abergel (39'), Talbi (50')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Sebas (77')
Coverage of the Ligue 2 clash between Lorient and Bastia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lorient

All competitions
Last Game: Paris FC 3-2 Lorient
Saturday, March 8 at 1pm in Ligue 2

Bastia

All competitions
Last Game: Bastia 1-0 Martigues
Friday, March 7 at 7pm in Ligue 2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 59.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 17.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.

Result
LorientDrawBastia
59.54% (-0.628 -0.63)22.9% (0.294 0.29)17.56% (0.338 0.34)
Both teams to score 47.86% (-0.231 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.28% (-0.651 -0.65)50.72% (0.656 0.66)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.38% (-0.579 -0.58)72.62% (0.58199999999999 0.58)
Lorient Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.31% (-0.44200000000001 -0.44)16.69% (0.446 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.44% (-0.802 -0.8)46.56% (0.807 0.81)
Bastia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.44% (0.028000000000006 0.03)42.56% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.08% (0.024000000000001 0.02)78.92% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lorient 59.53%
    Bastia 17.57%
    Draw 22.89%
LorientDrawBastia
1-0 @ 12.71% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 11.38% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.73% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.8% (-0.127 -0.13)
3-1 @ 5.81% (-0.104 -0.1)
4-0 @ 3.04% (-0.104 -0.1)
4-1 @ 2.6% (-0.086 -0.09)
3-2 @ 2.48% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.11% (-0.036 -0.04)
5-0 @ 1.09% (-0.055 -0.05)
5-1 @ 0.93% (-0.045 -0.04)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 59.53%
1-1 @ 10.86% (0.13 0.13)
0-0 @ 7.1% (0.186 0.19)
2-2 @ 4.15% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.89%
0-1 @ 6.07% (0.162 0.16)
1-2 @ 4.64% (0.06 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.59% (0.071 0.07)
1-3 @ 1.32% (0.018 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.18% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 17.57%

Head to Head
Nov 23, 2024 7pm
Gameweek 14
Bastia
0-0
Lorient
Ariss (32'), Ducrocq (53'), Ravynel Inao Oulai (53'), Laporte (61')
Janneh (32'), Roncaglia (90+5')
Silva (81'), Yongwa (85'), Yongwa (89')
Jan 21, 2023 5pm
Round of 32
Bastia
1-1
Lorient
(Aggregate 1-1 | Lorient win 4-1 on penalties)
Sainati (81')
Kone (64')
May 14, 2017 8pm
Bastia
2-0
Lorient
Crivelli (75'), Danic (86')
Crivelli (3'), Nangis (42'), Coulibaly (82')

Mvuemba (53'), Waris (79')
Aug 20, 2016 7pm
Lorient
0-3
Bastia

Philippoteaux (64'), Mesloub (66')
Didier Ndong (30'), Jeannot (77')
Saint-Maximin (26'), Crivelli (42', 81')
Mostefa (7'), Diallo Sadio (35'), Marange (44'), Djiku (67')
Mar 5, 2016 7pm
Bastia
0-0
Lorient
Mostefa (36'), Leca (87'), Cahuzac (88')
Bellugou (45'), Abdullah (65'), Guerreiro (88')