Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 53.34%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Red Star had a probability of 21.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Red Star win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bastia in this match.