Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 49.22%. A win for Red Star had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Red Star win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.