Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 43.08%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Red Star had a probability of 28.28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.15%), while for a Red Star win it was 0-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajaccio would win this match.