Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 68.8%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Caen had a probability of 12.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for a Caen win it was 0-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.