Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Guingamp had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Guingamp win was 1-0 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.