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Ligue 1

Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 25
Feb 24, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Lille-Metropole
Brest logo

Lille
2 - 1
Brest

Diakite (60'), Alexsandro (80')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Djalo (8' og.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: PSG 4-3 Lille
Sunday, February 19 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Brest

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 1-2 Monaco
Sunday, February 19 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 71.2%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Brest had a probability of 10.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.47%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawBrest
71.2% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)17.81% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)10.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Both teams to score 46.95% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.21% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)42.79% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.81% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)65.19% (0.042999999999992 0.04)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.27% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)10.72% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.33% (-0.025000000000006 -0.03)34.67% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.59% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)47.41% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.21% (-0.025000000000002 -0.03)82.79% (0.028000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Lille 71.2%
    Brest 10.98%
    Draw 17.81%
LilleDrawBrest
2-0 @ 12.67% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 11.35% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.46% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 9.43% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 7.04% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 5.26% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-1 @ 3.93% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.004 -0)
5-0 @ 2.35% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.76% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.47% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.86%
Total : 71.2%
1-1 @ 8.47% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 5.08% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.53% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 17.81%
0-1 @ 3.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 3.16% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-2 @ 1.42%
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 10.98%

How you voted: Lille vs Brest

Lille
87.1%
Draw
9.9%
Brest
3.0%
101
Head to Head
Jan 11, 2023 6pm
Brest
0-0
Lille

Cabella (90+6')
Jan 22, 2022 4pm
Brest
2-0
Lille
Djalo (3' og.), Mounie (90+5' pen.)
Mounie (11'), Agoume (27')

Yilmaz (54'), Mandava (57'), Sanches (58')
Oct 23, 2021 8pm
Lille
1-1
Brest
David (19')
Mandava (31')
Faivre (32')
Herelle (70'), Bizot (90+1')
Feb 14, 2021 4pm
Lille
0-0
Brest

Celik (44'), Bamba (75')

Belkebla (7')
Nov 8, 2020 12pm
Brest
3-2
Lille
Pierre-Gabriel (15'), Perraud (19'), Cardona (42')
Chardonnet (52'), Mounie (56'), Larsonneur (87'), Faussurier (90+1')
Yilmaz (45+3' pen., 57')
Yilmaz (45+3'), Mandava (64'), Fonte (90+4')