Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 56.62%. A win for Lille had a probability of 22.16% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 1-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lille |
56.62% ( 0.23) | 21.21% ( 0) | 22.16% ( -0.23) |
Both teams to score 61.13% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.17% ( -0.31) | 36.83% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.99% ( -0.34) | 59% ( 0.34) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.06% ( -0.04) | 12.94% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.6% ( -0.07) | 39.39% ( 0.07) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.21% ( -0.38) | 29.79% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.14% ( -0.46) | 65.86% ( 0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lille |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.4% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.94% Total : 56.62% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.21% | 1-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.03% Total : 22.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 34 |
2 | Marseille | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 29 |
3 | MonacoMonaco | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 29 |
4 | Lille | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 26 |
5 | Lyon | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Nice | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 23 |
7 | Lens | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 23 |
8 | Toulouse | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Auxerre | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Reims | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 19 |
11 | Brest | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 16 |
12 | Rennes | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 14 |
13 | NantesNantes | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
14 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 14 |
15 | Angers | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 13 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 13 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 36 | -23 | 8 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |