Coupe de France | Round of 16
Feb 8, 2023 at 8.10pm UK
Stade Vélodrome
We said: Marseille 1-1 Paris Saint-Germain (PSG to win on penalties)
Marseille's performance against Nice was not one to write home about, but Tudor will welcome several prominent players back to the first XI, and goals have not been a problem for this prolific Olympiens squad - nor should they be against a leaky and depleted PSG backline.
PSG cannot always rely on Messi stunners to bail them out amid their injury crisis - which is slowly improving - and we can envisage Marseille holding the injury-hit French champions to a low-scoring draw, but the Parisiens' penalty prowess should see them through to the last eight.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 50.44%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.38%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
Result |
Marseille | Draw | Paris Saint-Germain |
27.9% ( 0.02) | 21.66% ( -0) | 50.44% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 66.08% ( 0.02) |