Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 65.61%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 15.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 1-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Chicago Fire
65.61% ( -0.29)	18.71% ( 0.12)	15.68% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 57.84% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.49% (

-0.28)

35.5% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.44% (

-0.31)

57.55% (

0.3)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.87% (

-0.15)

10.12% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.68% (

-0.34)

33.31% (

0.33)

Chicago Fire Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.35% (

0.02)

35.64% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.58% (

0.02)

72.41% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Toluca 65.61%

Chicago Fire 15.68%

Draw 18.71%

Toluca	Draw	Chicago Fire
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.13% Total : 65.61%	1-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 18.71%	1-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.72% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.39% Total : 15.68%