Liga MX | Gameweek 3
Jul 18, 2024 at 4am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
3 - 0
Mazatlan

Paulinho (15', 15'), Garcia (45', 45'), Vega (77', 77')
Ruiz (48'), Ruiz (48'), Araujo (87'), Araujo (87')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Rubio (1'), Rubio (1'), Diaz (65'), Diaz (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Liga MX clash between Toluca and Mazatlan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Juarez
Sunday, July 14 at 2.10am in Liga MX

Mazatlan

All competitions
Last Game: Mazatlan 2-2 Atletico San Luis
Saturday, July 13 at 4am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 69.38%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Mazatlan had a probability of 12.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 1-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.31%), while for a Mazatlan win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawMazatlan
69.38% (1.121 1.12)17.77% (-0.121 -0.12)12.85% (-0.996 -1)
Both teams to score 53.38% (-2.591 -2.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.45% (-1.901 -1.9)37.55% (1.906 1.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.22% (-2.071 -2.07)59.78% (2.076 2.08)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.23% (-0.236 -0.24)9.77% (0.241 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.51% (-0.56 -0.56)32.49% (0.567 0.57)
Mazatlan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.16% (-2.707 -2.71)40.84% (2.712 2.71)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.58% (-2.517 -2.52)77.42% (2.522 2.52)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 69.38%
    Mazatlan 12.85%
    Draw 17.77%
TolucaDrawMazatlan
2-0 @ 10.79% (0.75 0.75)
2-1 @ 9.66% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-0 @ 9.28% (0.739 0.74)
3-0 @ 8.37% (0.5 0.5)
3-1 @ 7.49% (-0.093 -0.09)
4-0 @ 4.87% (0.241 0.24)
4-1 @ 4.36% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.302 -0.3)
5-0 @ 2.26% (0.09 0.09)
5-1 @ 2.03% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.95% (-0.198 -0.2)
5-2 @ 0.91% (-0.104 -0.1)
Other @ 4.05%
Total : 69.38%
1-1 @ 8.31% (0.075000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.33% (-0.339 -0.34)
0-0 @ 3.99% (0.357 0.36)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.174 -0.17)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 17.77%
1-2 @ 3.72% (-0.248 -0.25)
0-1 @ 3.57% (0.07 0.07)
0-2 @ 1.6% (-0.088 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.29% (-0.208 -0.21)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.166 -0.17)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 12.85%

How you voted: Toluca vs Mazatlan

Toluca
90.9%
Draw
9.1%
Mazatlan
0.0%
11
Head to Head
Jan 20, 2024 11pm
Gameweek 2
Toluca
4-1
Mazatlan
Baeza (37'), Meneses (61', 86'), Volpi (90+6' pen.)
Baeza (10'), Garcia (14'), Huerta (33'), Belmonte (89')
Montano (16' pen.)
Colula (30'), Intriago (44')
Nov 11, 2023 1.06am
Gameweek 17
Mazatlan
1-0
Toluca
Intriago (68')

Mosquera (90+4')
Mar 12, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 11
Toluca
4-1
Mazatlan
Gonzalez (25'), Lopez (45+5'), Araujo (48'), Sanvezzo (83')
Benedetti (38')
Sep 17, 2022 3am
Gameweek 15
Mazatlan
1-1
Toluca
Jan 22, 2022 3am
Gameweek 3
Mazatlan
1-2
Toluca
Bello (29')
Moreno (56'), Vidrio (90+5')
Sosa (73')
Canelo (69'), Fernandez (80' pen.)
Baeza (3'), Ortega (17')