League Two

League Two | Gameweek 30

Feb 4, 2023 at 12.45pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
2 - 1
Swindon

Norman (54'), Kavanagh (78')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Adeloye (90+1')

Coverage of the League Two clash between Newport County and Swindon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions

Last Game: Carlisle 2-0 Newport
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Swindon Town

All competitions

Last Game: Swindon 3-3 Gillingham
Saturday, January 28 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Swindon Town
37.7% ( 1.35)	26.89% ( 0)	35.41% ( -1.35)

Both teams to score 51.24% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.05% (

-0.05)

53.94% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.6% (

-0.04)

75.39% (

0.04)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.27% (

0.77)

27.73% (

-0.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.7% (

0.98)

63.3% (

-0.98)

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.9% (

-0.84)

29.1% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.98% (

-1.05)

65.02% (

1.05)

Score Analysis

Newport County 37.7%

Swindon Town 35.41%

Draw 26.88%

Newport County	Draw	Swindon Town
1-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.98% Total : 37.7%	1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.88%	0-1 @ 9.96% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.28) 1-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.56% Total : 35.41%