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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.76%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 25.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Grimsby Town |
49.76% | 24.57% | 25.67% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 53.82% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.61% ( 0) | 48.39% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.47% ( 0) | 70.53% ( 0) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.52% ( 0) | 19.48% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.66% | 51.34% ( 0.01) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.84% ( 0.01) | 33.16% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.24% ( 0.01) | 69.76% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Grimsby Town |
1-0 @ 10.56% 2-1 @ 9.54% 2-0 @ 8.64% 3-1 @ 5.2% 3-0 @ 4.71% 3-2 @ 2.87% 4-1 @ 2.13% 4-0 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 2.99% Total : 49.75% | 1-1 @ 11.66% 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.27% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.57% | 0-1 @ 7.13% 1-2 @ 6.44% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.94% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.94% 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 2.42% Total : 25.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
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