We said: University College Dublin 1-4 Derry City
Derry City find themselves far from their best, but we can only envisage them outclassing the basement side and arresting their slump on Friday.
The hosts do have a collection of promising young players, but the 7-1 win for Derry in the previous meeting suggests that UCD will struggle to match their opponents.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 66.3%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for University College Dublin had a probability of 12.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.53%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a University College Dublin win it was 1-0 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derry City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derry City.
-0.01) 
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