Europa League

Europa League | Playoffs | 1st Leg

Aug 24, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Stade Joseph Marien

Union SG
2 - 0
Lugano

(Union SG win 3-0 on aggregate)

Eckert (8'), Terho (71')
Eckert (42'), Mac Allister (67'), Nilsson (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sabbatini (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Union SG and Lugano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union SG

All competitions

Last Game: Mechelen 4-0 Union SG
Saturday, August 19 at 7.45pm in Belgian Pro League

Goals
for

Lugano

All competitions

Last Game: Lugano 6-1 Yverdon Sport
Sunday, August 13 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.

Result
Union SG	Draw	Lugano
50.23% ( 0)	23.3% ( 0)	26.46% ( -0)

Both teams to score 58.79% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.83% (

-0.02)

42.17% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.42% (

-0.02)

64.58% (

0.02)

Union SG Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.08% (

-0.01)

16.92% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.03% (

-0.01)

46.97% (

0.01)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.76% (

-0.01)

29.24% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.8% (

-0.02)

65.2% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Union SG 50.23%

Lugano 26.46%

Draw 23.3%

Union SG	Draw	Lugano
2-1 @ 9.6% 1-0 @ 8.79% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.81% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.63% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.53% 4-0 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) Other @ 4.09% Total : 50.23%	1-1 @ 10.8% 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.95% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.3%	1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.74% 1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.42% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 3.32% Total : 26.46%