Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Zurich win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Zurich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.