Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 47.95%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.