Copa Sudamericana | First Round

Mar 7, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Junior
2 - 2
America

Paiva (54', 54', 71', 71')
Paiva (72'), Paiva (72')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Fanc Lucumii Gonzalez (38', 38'), Vergara (44', 44')
Balanta (60'), Balanta (60'), Carrascal (77'), Carrascal (77')

America win 4-3 on penalties

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Atletico Junior and America de Cali.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Junior

Last Game: Junior 1-2 Colo-Colo
Wednesday, August 21 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

America de Cali

Last Game: Alianza Petrolera 2-1 America
Thursday, March 7 at 2am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Junior win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for America de Cali had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Junior win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest America de Cali win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.

Result
Atletico Junior	Draw	America de Cali
41.14% ( -0.21)	28.42% ( 0.23)	30.44% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 45.55% (

-0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.45% (

-0.79)

60.55% (

0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.35% (

-0.6)

80.65% (

0.6)

Atletico Junior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.06% (

-0.5)

28.93% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.18% (

-0.63)

64.82% (

0.62)

America de Cali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.1% (

-0.44)

35.9% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.32% (

-0.45)

72.68% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

Atletico Junior 41.14%

America de Cali 30.44%

Draw 28.4%

Atletico Junior	Draw	America de Cali
1-0 @ 12.88% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.6% Total : 41.14%	1-1 @ 13.19% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.4%	0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.99% Total : 30.44%