Copa do Brasil | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Oct 3, 2024 at 1.45am UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Flamengo
1 - 0
Corinthians

Sandro (32', 32')
Ortiz (35'), Ortiz (35'), Wesley (48'), Wesley (48'), Pulgar (59'), Pulgar (59'), Barbosa (74'), Barbosa (74')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Romero (29'), Romero (29'), Hugo (62'), Hugo (62'), Andres Martinez (76'), Andres Martinez (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa do Brasil clash between Flamengo and Corinthians, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Flamengo 1-0 Athletico PR
Monday, September 30 at 12am in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Corinthians

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians
Sunday, September 29 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 63.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 14.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.45%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Flamengo in this match.

Result
Flamengo	Draw	Corinthians
63.46% ( 1.28)	21.74% ( -0.52)	14.8% ( -0.76)

Both teams to score 45.5% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.25% (

0.66)

50.75% (

-0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.35% (

0.58)

72.65% (

-0.58)

Flamengo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.62% (

0.65)

15.38% (

-0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.83% (

1.2)

44.17% (

-1.2)

Corinthians Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.77% (

-0.67)

46.22% (

0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.1% (

-0.52)

81.9% (

0.52)

Score Analysis

Flamengo 63.45%

Corinthians 14.8%

Draw 21.74%

Flamengo	Draw	Corinthians
1-0 @ 13.31% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.31) 3-1 @ 6% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.22) 4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.05% Total : 63.45%	1-1 @ 10.27% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.65% Total : 21.74%	0-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.26% Total : 14.8%