Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 55.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.