Excelsior

4 - 1

NAC Breda

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.57%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.