Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 1

May 24, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
1 - 0
Progreso

Trasante (71' og., 71' og.)
Morales (9'), Morales (9'), Vargas (27'), Vargas (27'), Romero (41'), Romero (41'), Oliva (90'), Oliva (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Nahuel Moreira Morales (41'), Nahuel Moreira Morales (41'), Olivera (81'), Olivera (81'), Garcia (82'), Garcia (82')

Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Progreso.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Uruguayan Primera Division

Last Game: Nacional 2-1 Defensor
Sunday, May 18 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Progreso

All competitions

Last Game: Progreso 1-2 Juventud
Sunday, May 18 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 62.08%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 15.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Progreso
62.08% ( -0.24)	21.97% ( 0.35)	15.95% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 47.38% (

-1.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.37% (

-1.63)

49.62% (

1.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.35% (

-1.47)

71.64% (

1.47)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.55% (

-0.62)

15.45% (

0.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.69% (

-1.17)

44.3% (

1.17)

Progreso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.03% (

-1.12)

43.96% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.9% (

-0.94)

80.09% (

0.93)

Score Analysis

Nacional 62.07%

Progreso 15.95%

Draw 21.96%

Nacional	Draw	Progreso
1-0 @ 12.68% ( 0.56) 2-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( -0.15) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.12% Total : 62.07%	1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.79% ( 0.44) 2-2 @ 4% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.75% Total : 21.96%	0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.52% Total : 15.95%