Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 14
May 3, 2025 at 9.30pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
4 - 0
Cerro

Petit Abad (27'), Vargas (48'), Herazo (80'), Morales (82')
Recoba (20'), Martin Villalba Jaume (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Villar (17'), Emanuel Cuello Azambuya (51'), Silvestre (74')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Cerro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Wanderers
Sunday, April 27 at 12.15am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Cerro

All competitions
Last Game: Cerro 1-2 Torque
Sunday, April 20 at 9.15pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 17.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawCerro
59% (-1.303 -1.3)23.68% (0.36 0.36)17.32% (0.945 0.95)
Both teams to score 45.2% (0.786 0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.95% (0.065000000000005 0.07)54.05% (-0.064 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.52% (0.056000000000001 0.06)75.48% (-0.054999999999993 -0.05)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.92% (-0.44499999999999 -0.44)18.07% (0.445 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51% (-0.767 -0.77)48.99% (0.768 0.77)
Cerro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.17% (1.252 1.25)44.83% (-1.251 -1.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.2% (0.988 0.99)80.8% (-0.98699999999999 -0.99)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 59%
    Cerro 17.32%
    Draw 23.67%
NacionalDrawCerro
1-0 @ 13.86% (-0.23 -0.23)
2-0 @ 11.85% (-0.38 -0.38)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.76% (-0.319 -0.32)
3-1 @ 5.42% (-0.061 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.89% (-0.181 -0.18)
4-1 @ 2.32% (-0.061 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.18% (0.051 0.05)
5-0 @ 0.99% (-0.077 -0.08)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 59%
1-1 @ 11.12% (0.2 0.2)
0-0 @ 8.1% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.82% (0.144 0.14)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 23.67%
0-1 @ 6.5% (0.207 0.21)
1-2 @ 4.46% (0.229 0.23)
0-2 @ 2.61% (0.17 0.17)
1-3 @ 1.19% (0.1 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.02% (0.073 0.07)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 17.32%

Head to Head
Nov 2, 2024 10pm
Gameweek 10
Nacional
2-0
Cerro
Galeano (45+1'), Lopez (55')
Castro (31')

Triunfo (54'), Macelli (84')
Jun 9, 2024 10pm
Gameweek 1
Cerro
3-0
Nacional
Ramirez (14'), Petillo Mediza (84'), Gonzalez (88')
Berrios (76')
Abero (29')

Santander (65'), Izquierdo (67'), Castro (69')
Apr 28, 2024 10pm
Gameweek 10
Cerro
1-2
Nacional
Macelli (61')
Abero (36'), Rodriguez (90+6')
Carneiro (40' pen.), Oliva (70')
Antoni (60'), Oliva (75')
Oct 15, 2023 10.30pm
Gameweek 5
Nacional
2-1
Cerro
Rodriguez (17'), Gigliotti (70')
Lozano (10'), Martinez (33')
Rodriguez (12')
Rodriguez (25'), Coronel (31'), Tizon (43'), Abero (51'), Fernandez (67')
Jun 3, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 1
Cerro
1-1
Nacional
Nandin (1')
Perez (45+1'), Denis (83'), Souza (90+3')
Pereiro (79')
Rodriguez (18'), Pereiro (79')