Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Bahia in this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Bahia
34.48% ( 0.61)	27.19% ( 0.32)	38.33% ( -0.93)

Both teams to score 50.18% (

-0.89)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.77% (

-1.17)

55.23% (

1.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.54% (

-0.97)

76.46% (

0.97)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.68% (

-0.19)

30.33% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.49% (

-0.23)

66.51% (

0.23)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.02% (

-1.08)

27.98% (

1.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.38% (

-1.39)

63.62% (

1.39)

Score Analysis

Nacional 34.47%

Bahia 38.33%

Draw 27.19%

Nacional	Draw	Bahia
1-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.4) 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 3.06% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 34.47%	1-1 @ 12.89% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.91% Total : 27.19%	0-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.9% Total : 38.33%