Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 16.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.71%) and 1-2 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 1-0 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.