Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 53.19%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 20.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.24%) and 1-2 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.