Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 3, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atletico Nacional
3 - 0
Nacional

Hinestroza (45+2'), Stiven Viveros Rodallega (55'), Morelos (72')
Andres Gil Mosquera (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Recoba (59')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Atletico Nacional and Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Nacional

Last Game: Atletico Nacional 0-3 Nacional
Thursday, February 29 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Nacional 1-2 Juventud
Sunday, March 30 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 43.22%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Nacional would win this match.

Result
Atletico Nacional	Draw	Nacional
43.22% ( 1.34)	27.53% ( 0.15)	29.25% ( -1.5)

Both teams to score 47.5% (

-1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.16% (

-1.11)

57.83% (

1.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.44% (

-0.88)

78.56% (

0.88)

Atletico Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.47% (

0.19)

26.52% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.27% (

0.26)

61.72% (

-0.26)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.64% (

-1.71)

35.35% (

1.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.88% (

-1.82)

72.11% (

1.82)

Score Analysis

Atletico Nacional 43.22%

Nacional 29.25%

Draw 27.52%

Atletico Nacional	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.58) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.43) 3-1 @ 3.8% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.21) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.03% Total : 43.22%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.52%	0-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.07% Total : 29.25%