Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Jun 9, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Olimpia
3 - 0
Atletico Nacional

Gamarra (19', 19'), Paiva (50', 50'), Torres (90', 90')

FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Olimpia and Atletico Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Olimpia

Last Game: Patronato 0-2 Olimpia
Thursday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Atletico Nacional

Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, May 25 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.

Result
Olimpia	Draw	Atletico Nacional
42.89% ( 0.21)	27.61% ( 0.05)	29.49% ( -0.26)

Both teams to score 47.37% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.94% (

-0.26)

58.05% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.26% (

-0.21)

78.73% (

0.2)

Olimpia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.2% (

-0.01)

26.8% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.91% (

-0.01)

62.09% (

0.01)

Atletico Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.71% (

-0.34)

35.28% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.96% (

-0.36)

72.03% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Olimpia 42.89%

Atletico Nacional 29.49%

Draw 27.61%

Olimpia	Draw	Atletico Nacional
1-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.23% 4-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 42.89%	1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.61%	0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.08% Total : 29.49%