Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 21, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Atletico Nacional
3 - 1
Melgar

Pabon (28', 38' pen., 59', 59')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Iberico (57')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Atletico Nacional and Melgar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Nacional

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Last Game: Patronato 1-2 Atletico Nacional
Wednesday, April 5 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Melgar

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Last Game: Melgar 1-1 Olimpia
Friday, April 7 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 26.14%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Nacional would win this match.

Result
Atletico NacionalDrawMelgar
46.63% (0.114 0.11)27.24% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)26.14% (-0.055 -0.05)
Both teams to score 46.35% (0.106 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.67% (0.162 0.16)58.33% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.05% (0.126 0.13)78.95% (-0.124 -0.12)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.97% (0.126 0.13)25.03% (-0.124 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.3% (0.176 0.18)59.7% (-0.175 -0.17)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.83% (0.039000000000001 0.04)38.17% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.07% (0.038 0.04)74.93% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Nacional 46.63%
    Melgar 26.14%
    Draw 27.23%
Atletico NacionalDrawMelgar
1-0 @ 13.23% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-0 @ 9.16% (0.012 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.83% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.23% (0.021 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.08% (0.024 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.96% (0.014 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.47% (0.013 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.41% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 46.63%
1-1 @ 12.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 9.55% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-2 @ 4.25% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 0.69%
Total : 27.23%
0-1 @ 9.2% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
1-2 @ 6.14% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 4.43% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.97% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.42% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.37% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.61%
Total : 26.14%

rhs 2.0


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