Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Jul 7, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Melgar
2 - 1
Deportivo Cali

(Melgar win 2-1 on aggregate)

Cuesta (58' pen., 73')
Deneumostier (51'), Reyna (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mosquera (90+7')
Gutierrez (37'), Velasco (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Melgar and Deportivo Cali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

Last Game: Deportivo Cali 0-0 Melgar
Thursday, June 30 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Deportivo Cali

Last Game: Deportivo Cali 0-0 Melgar
Thursday, June 30 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 61.35%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Deportivo Cali had a probability of 17.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Deportivo Cali win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Deportivo Cali
61.35% ( -0.12)	21.57% ( 0.03)	17.07% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 50.97% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.95% (

0.02)

46.05% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.65% (

0.02)

68.35% (

-0.02)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.5% (

-0.03)

14.5% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.5% (

-0.06)

42.5% (

0.06)

Deportivo Cali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.61% (

0.12)

40.38% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23% (

0.11)

77% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Melgar 61.34%

Deportivo Cali 17.07%

Draw 21.57%

Melgar	Draw	Deportivo Cali
1-0 @ 11.3% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 10.91% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.37% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 61.34%	1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.98% Total : 21.57%	0-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.95% Total : 17.07%