Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 25, 2023 at 3am UK
Estadio Melgar

Melgar
0 - 1
Atletico Nacional

FT(HT: 0-0)
Banguero (88', 88')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Melgar and Atletico Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

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Last Game: Patronato 4-1 Melgar
Thursday, May 4 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Atletico Nacional

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Last Game: Atletico Nacional 2-2 Olimpia
Wednesday, May 3 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 53.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 20.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
MelgarDrawAtletico Nacional
53.4% (0.077999999999996 0.08)26.19% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)20.4% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)
Both teams to score 43.3% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.78% (-0.055 -0.05)59.21% (0.053000000000004 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.36% (-0.044 -0.04)79.63% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.67% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)22.32% (-0.011999999999997 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.2% (0.015000000000001 0.02)55.8% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.75% (-0.114 -0.11)44.25% (0.112 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.67% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)80.33% (0.093000000000004 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Melgar 53.4%
    Atletico Nacional 20.4%
    Draw 26.18%
MelgarDrawAtletico Nacional
1-0 @ 14.81% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-0 @ 11.1% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.06% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 5.55% (0.017 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.53%
4-0 @ 2.08% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.85% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.7% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 53.4%
1-1 @ 12.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.88% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.69% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 26.18%
0-1 @ 8.05% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.92% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.28% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.34% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 20.4%

Head to Head
Apr 21, 2023 1am
Group Stage
Atletico Nacional
3-1
Melgar
Pabon (28', 38' pen., 59')
Banguero (5')
Iberico (57')
Bordacahar (25'), Soso (67'), Orzan (68'), Pierre Archimbaud Arriaran (82'), Deneumostier (90+1')