Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 17.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.