Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 15
May 18, 2025 at 7pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Defensor

Nacional
2 - 1
Defensor

Lopez (66' pen.), Petit Abad (85')
Oliva (12'), Otero (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Furtado (53')
Ginella (39'), Alvarez (46')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Defensor Sporting.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 0-2 Internacional
Thursday, May 15 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Defensor Sporting

All competitions
Last Game: Defensor 0-1 Penarol
Saturday, May 3 at 1.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 24.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawDefensor Sporting
49.77% (-0.233 -0.23)25.32% (0.059999999999999 0.06)24.91% (0.176 0.18)
Both teams to score 50.77% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.94% (-0.092999999999996 -0.09)52.05% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.22% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)73.78% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.07% (-0.136 -0.14)20.93% (0.137 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.33% (-0.214 -0.21)53.67% (0.215 0.21)
Defensor Sporting Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.22% (0.104 0.1)35.78% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.44% (0.106 0.11)72.56% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 49.76%
    Defensor Sporting 24.91%
    Draw 25.31%
NacionalDrawDefensor Sporting
1-0 @ 11.71%
2-1 @ 9.41% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
2-0 @ 9.16% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
3-1 @ 4.91% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.78% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.87% (-0.025 -0.02)
4-2 @ 0.99% (-0.007 -0.01)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 49.76%
1-1 @ 12.03% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.49% (0.028 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.84% (0.0039999999999996 0)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 25.31%
0-1 @ 7.7% (0.05 0.05)
1-2 @ 6.19% (0.031 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.96% (0.036 0.04)
1-3 @ 2.12% (0.017 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.66% (0.006 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.36% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 24.91%

Head to Head
Sep 21, 2024 11pm
Gameweek 4
Nacional
1-1
Defensor
Polenta (67')
Polenta (74')
Spinelli (26')
De Los Santos (68'), Alvarez (83'), Dawson (90+5')
Mar 10, 2024 10.30pm
Gameweek 4
Defensor
3-3
Nacional
Rivero (22'), Mansilla (52'), Duarte (54')
Bernal (24'), Mansilla (52'), Cuello (54'), Elizari (72'), De Los Santos (90+4')
Pereyra (10'), Carneiro (59' pen.), Santander (86')
Oliva (81'), Santander (88')
Dec 4, 2023 11.30pm
Gameweek 14
Nacional
1-0
Defensor
Rodriguez (81')
Lozano (33'), Chagas (45'), Chagas (45+1'), Rodriguez (74')
Rodriguez (82')

Martinez (29'), De Los Santos (44'), Bernal (65')
May 7, 2023 10pm
Gameweek 14
Defensor
2-2
Nacional
Candido (38' og.), Barcia (70')
Fagundez (17'), Ramirez (53' pen.)
Oct 8, 2022 11.30pm
Gameweek 12
Nacional
1-1
Defensor
Trezza (34')
Elizari (46')